Weekend Briefing

Here's what you need to know to start your week

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Morning Headlines

Reuters: Foreign investors who left Russia after selling their businesses there between March 2022 and March 2023 withdrew about $36 billion from the country, the state RIA news agency reported on Monday, citing analysis of data from the Central Bank.

ISW: Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the Russian relief in place operation in Bakhmut may continue past his initial June 1 deadline and last until June 5.

UK Ministry of Defence: Russian doctrine considers the use of smoke part of maskirovka (camouflage and deception) - upon which it places strong emphasis. However, in practice, Russian maskirovka has generally been ineffectual in the Ukraine war, likely because of a lack of a strong central planning function and poor low-level battle discipline.

Meduza: A new Russian history textbook set to become a part of the upcoming school curriculum includes a chapter on the war in Ukraine, which teaches students that the West used Ukraine as “a foothold for a NATO attack.”

The Guardian: Ukraine says 16,000 children have been deported from Russian-held territory during the war – many by friends and relatives seeking to make money from fostering.

28.05.2023

Reuters: Russia unleashed waves of air strikes on Kyiv overnight in what officials said appeared to be the largest drone attack on the city since the start of the war, as the Ukrainian capital prepared to celebrate the anniversary of its founding on Sunday.

Reuters: Western countries left Belarus no choice but to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons and had better take heed not to "cross red lines" on key strategic issues, a senior Belarusian official was quoted as saying on Sunday.

Ukrainska Pravda: The British Storm Shadow long-range missiles recently supplied to Ukraine are showing impeccable results on the battlefield.

RFE/RL: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy initiated sanctions against Iran for a period of 50 years, according to state news agency Unian, referring to a presidential legislative initiative received by the Ukrainian parliament.

AFP: Fatalism takes over in bombed Russian border city Belgorod.

Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the EU: Russia will be held accountable for attacks carried out on civilian areas, the European Union has said.

Reuters: Russia's air defence systems destroyed several drones as they approached the Ilsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region near the Black Sea, local officials said on Sunday.

Reuters: President Vladimir Putin on Sunday ordered stronger border security to ensure "fast" Russian military and civilian movement into Ukrainian regions now under Moscow control.

ISW: Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of planning a coup against the current Russian leadership. Girkin’s and his associates’ criticisms are largely consistent with Prigozhin’s continued prioritization of his own personal aims over those of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the broader operational situation near Bakhmut.

27.05.2023

AFP: Iran struck back at Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday, saying his accusation the Islamic republic is arming Russia was an attempt to gain the West's military and financial support.

WSJ: Tensions are rising between Saudi Arabia and Russia as Moscow keeps pumping large volumes of cheaper crude into the market.

BBC: Russia has warned Western supplies of weapons to Ukraine risk escalating the war to levels not seen so far. Andrei Kelin, Russia's ambassador to the UK, told the BBC his country had "enormous resources" and it was yet to "act very seriously".

Meduza: Russia’s deputy foreign minister outlined Moscow’s conditions for peace, which included Ukraine recognizing “new territorial realities,” adopting Russian as a state language, and refusing to join both NATO and the EU.

NY Times: “It's time to get back what's ours,” Ukraine's supreme military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, wrote in a statement.

AFP: Ukraine has asked Berlin to provide it with Taurus air-to-surface missiles that have a range of in excess of 500 kilometres, Germany's defence ministry told AFP on Saturday.

BBC: Hundreds of Germans working in the education and cultural sectors are being expelled from Russia next month, the German foreign ministry says. It confirmed media reports that Russia had decided to cap the number of German employees from the start of June.

Reuters: Ukraine struck oil pipeline installations deep inside Russia on Saturday with a series of drone attacks including on a station serving the vast Druzhba oil pipeline that sends Western Siberian crude to Europe, according to Russian media.

BBC: Ukraine is ready to launch its long-expected counter-offensive against Russian forces, one of the country's most senior security officials has told the BBC. Oleksiy Danilov would not name a date but said an assault to retake territory from President Vladimir Putin's occupying forces could begin "tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in a week".

ISW: The decreased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and the reported ongoing relief in place operation are likely further providing Ukrainian forces in the area the initiative to launch a new phase of operations around the city if they so choose.

26.05.2023

Reuters: Ukraine's defence ministry on Friday said Russia was planning to simulate a major accident at a nuclear power station controlled by pro-Moscow forces to try to thwart a long-planned Ukrainian counteroffensive to retake territory occupied by Russia.

Novaya-Europe: The recent raids into Russian territory have given rise to questions about the state of Russian border security. How come border guards were unable to thwart the attacks? And what is the current situation on the Russia-Ukraine border? Novaya-Europe investigates.

Meduza: The Russian-Ukrainian war has been called a “drone war.” In fact, there have been several smaller drone wars within the larger one. Watch Meduza’s video analysis of the drones that have been used in Ukraine.

WSJ: The Chinese envoy dispatched to push Beijing’s peace plan for Ukraine carried a clear message: U.S. allies in Europe should assert their autonomy and urge an immediate cease-fire, leaving Russia in possession of the parts of its smaller neighbor that it now occupies.

EURACTIV: NATO members are set to offer Ukraine an upgraded relationship format, in a move meant to show political support for the war-torn country and its membership bid, although any concrete roadmap for accession still remains a more distant prospect.

Sky News: At least two people have been killed after a Russian missile strike hit a health clinic and a veterinary building in eastern Ukraine, officials have said. More than 20 people are also said to have been injured, including three children.

CNN: The US Treasury has sanctioned the head of the Wagner private military group in Mali, Ivan Maslov, as part of its pushback against Wagner activities in Africa funneling support to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Meduza: Russia has abducted thousands of Ukrainian civilians and locked them away with no criminal charges. Survivors describe rampant torture from prison guards. Meduza reports on these “civilian hostages,” as they’re known to human rights workers.

CNN: The waters of the Caspian Sea appear deceptively calm. But this sea route – which provides a direct path between Iran and Russia – is increasingly busy with cargo traffic, including suspected weapons transfers from Tehran to Moscow.

Bloomberg: The Netherlands will likely send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine after pilot training, sources say.

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