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Weekend Briefing
Here's what you need to know to start your week
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Morning Headlines
Reuters: Russia's defence ministry accused Ukraine of a "terrorist" drone attack on Moscow on Monday, after the city's mayor said that two buildings were hit and media reported that debris was found not far from the defence ministry's buildings.
Reuters: An ammunition depot was hit early on Monday in Dzhankoi in Crimea, with Russian air defence forces intercepting or suppressing 11 drones over the area, a Russian-installed official said.
FT: African leaders will this week travel to St Petersburg for a high-level summit hosted by Putin that reveals how even Russia’s resurgence on the continent cannot mask the consequences of its war in Ukraine. Moscow’s forces have stepped up the bombing of Ukrainian ports since it exited a UN-led grain deal, leaving some African leaders fretting over possible food riots at home.
The Kyiv Independent: In an interview with the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies, researcher Jade McGlynn said: “…The aggression against Ukraine is not Putin’s venture only. And if we — we being the West — believe that the catastrophic genocidal war will be easily solved if we get rid of one person, then we are going to fall victim to misconceptions and design wrong policies.”
ISW: Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Prigozhin may pose to him through symbolism and posturing during a meeting with Belarusian President Lukashenko in St. Petersburg, Russia.
WSJ: Who will control Wagner’s empire of war and gold? This complex network of companies belonging to the paramilitary group will make any Kremlin takeover a challenge.
Bloomberg: Ukraine needs its women back for a shot at economic recovery. The longer war refugees stay away, the less likely it is that they’ll return.
UK Ministry of Defence: Russia’s renewed emphasis on military induction for children is largely an effort to cultivate a culture of militarised patriotism rather than develop genuine capability. However, the addition of UAV skills does highlight how Russia has identified the use of tactical UAVs in Ukraine as an enduring component of contemporary war.
23.07.2023
Business Insider: Putin has reinforced his National Guard with an elite special forces unit to protect him in case of another rebellion, the British newspaper The Telegraph reported.
The Guardian: The consumer group Unilever, which owns brands including Cornetto ice-cream and Dove soap, has said it will comply with Russian conscription law, meaning its Russian employees could be sent to war in Ukraine if called up.
AFP: Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Sunday that Kyiv and Warsaw would "always stand united" after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko accused Poland of having territorial ambitions.
CNN: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is visiting Equatorial Guinea to discuss food security in Africa nearly two weeks after Russia pulled out of a critical deal to allow safe passage of Ukrainian grain exports.
Reuters: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that while Ukraine has reconquered half the territory that Russia initially seized in its invasion, Kyiv faced a "a very hard fight" to win back more.
The Observer Analysis: A bureaucratic, peacetime approach to training and stockpiling among Zelenskiy’s allies is posing a threat to European security.
AFP: Russia's latest strike on Odesa on Sunday killed two people and severely damaged a historic Orthodox cathedral, drawing a vow of retaliation from Ukraine's leader.
BBC News: A mercenary who took part in the attempted mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin says he and his fellow fighters "didn't have a clue" what was going on.
AP News: Russian tennis player Vera Zvonareva has been banned from entering Poland, the country’s Ministry of the Interior says. She was to participate in a WTA 250 tournament in Warsaw.
WSJ: Minefields, fortifications and Russian air power have combined to largely block big advances by Ukrainian troops in their offensive.
ISW: Ukrainian officials stated on July 22 that Ukraine’s interdiction campaign against Russian military targets in rear areas is successfully degrading Russian logistics and counterbattery capabilities, likely contributing to an asymmetrical attrition gradient in Ukraine’s favor.
22.07.2023
CNN: Several pro-war Russian military bloggers have publicly questioned the decision to arrest Igor Girkin, a former official in the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic who had also covered the war online.
AP News: Russian security forces on Saturday killed a heavily-armed gunman who broke into a private house in the suburbs of Moscow and fired at them, reportedly threatening to march on the Kremlin.
The Guardian: A key pipeline to the southern Ukrainian port city was hit by a missile in the early days of the invasion, but for now at least people are managing to keep vital services running.
Novaya-Europe: Russia planned to recruit 400,000 volunteer soldiers to the war by the end of the year. But the campaign doesn’t seem to be going so well.
SCMP: China is calling for the resumption of grain and fertiliser exports from Ukraine and Russia as soon as possible following the collapse of a trade deal that ensured the safety of ships passing through the Black Sea.
Sky News: Putin's priority is to retain his grip on power, and he clearly values loyalty over competence, writes military analyst Sean Bell.
Reuters: A Russian 'war reporter' was killed and three were wounded in Ukraine on Saturday in what the defence ministry said was a Ukrainian attack using cluster munitions, prompting outrage from Moscow.
The Kyiv Independent: Warsaw has summoned the Russian Ambassador to Poland after President Vladimir Putin threatened Poland and claimed it was eyeing territory in Ukraine and Belarus.
AFP: A Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow-annexed Crimea caused the "detonation" of an ammunition depot Saturday, the Moscow-installed ‘leader’ of the peninsula said, ordering the evacuation of people living within five kilometres of the attack and halting rail traffic.
AP News: Russia came under pressure at the United Nations Security Council on Friday from its ally China and developing countries as well as Western nations to avert a global food crisis and quickly revive Ukrainian grain shipments.
21.07.2023
CNN: Germany has pledged to support its NATO ally Poland in defending its eastern flank in case of a potential attack from Wagner fighters in neighboring Belarus.
UN: Russia’s termination of its participation in the Black Sea Initiative, coupled with its bombardment of Ukrainian ports, will have far-reaching impacts on global food security.
AFP: Bulgaria decided on Friday to send about 100 armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine in the Balkan country's first shipment of heavy equipment to Kyiv.
AP News: A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a closed-door meeting, confirmed that a large part of Biden’s discussion with Zuppi concerned the Vatican effort to return Ukrainian children.
FT: Russia is pushing a plan to supply grain to Africa and cut Ukraine out of the global market after Moscow’s withdrawal this week from a UN-backed deal, according to three people familiar with the matter. Putin has proposed a replacement initiative whereby Qatar would pay Moscow to ship Russian grain to Turkey, which would then distribute the crop to “countries in need”, the people said.
CNN: A total of 21 people have been injured by Russian strikes on the southern port city of Odesa over the past five days, the head of the regional military administration, Oleh Kiper, said on Friday.
Reuters: French President Emmanuel Macron's top diplomatic adviser said China was delivering items that could be used as military equipment to Russia, although not on a massive scale.
AFP: Former separatist commander and nationalist blogger Igor Girkin, better known by his alias Igor Strelkov, has been detained after sharply criticising Russian President Vladimir Putin, his lawyer said on Friday.
Reuters: Putin on Friday accused NATO member Poland of having territorial ambitions in the former Soviet Union, and said any aggression against Russia's neighbour and close ally Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia.
CNN: Poland will move military formations to the east of the country in response to potential threats from Wagner mercenary fighters stationed in neighboring Belarus, national news agency PAP reported Friday, citing Warsaw's security chief.
ISW: The Russian military’s intensifying strikes against Ukrainian port and grain infrastructure and threats of maritime escalation are likely a part of a Kremlin effort to leverage Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and exact extensive concessions from the West.
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